Monday, October 29, 2007

US playing Kingmaker Again

Right now I see four major fronts in the ME to reduce the acceptance of terror tactics as a means for change:
1. Iraq of course
2. Iran without a doubt
3. Pakistan
4. Afghanistan

I put Pakistan in at number three because of the strategic importance and their nuclear capability. This front is managed in a different manner than any of the others and may deserve to be higher on the list.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The United States pressured Pakistan to allow former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to return from exile, promoting her as a moderate influence in a country facing a growing threat from Islamic extremists, a Pakistani government spokesman said.

When the US flexes its’ diplomatic muscle there is a certain amount of attention played by the world. Some will just thumb their noses at the US and continue on their own path. The case with Pakistan is they eventually moved in the direction the US thinks they want. I say think they want because diplomatic solution have a tendency to turn out a whole lot different than intended. When the US “peacefully” throws their collective weight around, there is always a push back against the US. There are countries out there that do not want the US to have that influence and take situations like this to undermine the direction. It is easy to stir up the hornets’ nest and then distance oneself of any blame. I believe this is what is currently happening in India and the push against the nuclear treat that was hammered out. I expect there to be a lot more resistance to this direction in Pakistan, after all there has already been an assassination attempt.

The US has played Kingmaker in the past and there are plenty of instances where it has come back to bite. Iran is just one instance to look at. When the US gets too close to picking leaders, it can become a rally point for anti-Americanism. Is this necessary for the short haul, most definitely but I can only hope the lang haul doesn’t lead down a very bad path.