Don't Look Behind the Curtain

Why would anybody, especially Russia want to limit outside observation of election results

Russia is seeking "unprecedented" curbs on monitors observing its parliamentary polls, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) says.
It wants limits on the size of the OSCE delegation at the 2 December poll, and consultation on its make-up.

The most obvious cynical answer is that there is an effort to put the” fix in”. Even if it isn’t true, it seems to me to be a bad time to pull such a move with the talk about Putin and his power grab. The Russian constitution has a term limit for the President. If this is not revoked, President Putin will be stepping down much like Pres. Bush. It is reported that Putin is very popular and there is a movement to keep him in power.

The Russian Constitution limits a president to two terms, which would mean a natural conclusion in 2008 to Vladimir Putin's presidency. So far, Putin says he will abide by the legal limit. But there are growing calls, whether spontaneous or orchestrated by the Kremlin, to change the Constitution.

Is this an effort to put the right people in place in order to change the Russian Constitution or am I seeing something that isn’t there? The Russian Federation is only 16 years old and is still struggling to find its’ grove in being a more open country. The rumor mill is stirred by questions surrounding Putin for his approach to free press, his involvement in the Ukraine election, and poison allegations. All of this only convinces some that he is perfectly capable orchestrating a permanent power grab.

US playing Kingmaker Again

Right now I see four major fronts in the ME to reduce the acceptance of terror tactics as a means for change:
1. Iraq of course
2. Iran without a doubt
3. Pakistan
4. Afghanistan

I put Pakistan in at number three because of the strategic importance and their nuclear capability. This front is managed in a different manner than any of the others and may deserve to be higher on the list.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The United States pressured Pakistan to allow former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to return from exile, promoting her as a moderate influence in a country facing a growing threat from Islamic extremists, a Pakistani government spokesman said.

When the US flexes its’ diplomatic muscle there is a certain amount of attention played by the world. Some will just thumb their noses at the US and continue on their own path. The case with Pakistan is they eventually moved in the direction the US thinks they want. I say think they want because diplomatic solution have a tendency to turn out a whole lot different than intended. When the US “peacefully” throws their collective weight around, there is always a push back against the US. There are countries out there that do not want the US to have that influence and take situations like this to undermine the direction. It is easy to stir up the hornets’ nest and then distance oneself of any blame. I believe this is what is currently happening in India and the push against the nuclear treat that was hammered out. I expect there to be a lot more resistance to this direction in Pakistan, after all there has already been an assassination attempt.

The US has played Kingmaker in the past and there are plenty of instances where it has come back to bite. Iran is just one instance to look at. When the US gets too close to picking leaders, it can become a rally point for anti-Americanism. Is this necessary for the short haul, most definitely but I can only hope the lang haul doesn’t lead down a very bad path.

India Stands for the Just with the Unjust

One way to play King of the Mountain (aka King of the Hill) is to form temporary allies in order to take down the “King”. Once the “king” has tumbled, then the alliance is over and a free for all breaks out for the top slot. The old “King” has to be humbled so much so they don’t just walk up and take the top slot again. Temporary alliances are never for the better because the backstabbing weakens all parties. If the alliance does push the “King” off, they are rarely the new “King”. India needs to beware of the alliance they are dabbling with because the other two play hard.

(CNSNews.com) - India joined China and Russia Wednesday in calling for a "more just and rational" world order but, in a now familiar refrain, also insisted that their trilateral cooperation was not intended to target "any other country."

A meeting in northern China of the three countries' foreign ministers ended with a joint communique containing veiled references to U.S. domination of international affairs.

The kicker of it all is the fact that only India has any chance of being “just and rational”. The US has reached out to India and for a brief time they reached back. The failed experiment called communism is still disrupting the world.

Policy makers in the U.S. and India have described a landmark civilian nuclear cooperation deal between the two large democracies as a significant and strategic initiative. The agreement now is in grave trouble, however, as a result of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's failure to get communist allies' approval in parliament.

As the world gets smaller and smaller, there will have to be a leader figure because a house divided against itself cannot stand. The leader does not have to be the US but I most assuredly do not want Russia, China or any ME country to be that leader.

ME Warsaw Pact

Just yesterday I babbled on about the need for the US to create a modern day Marshall Plan. Know it looks like Russia is starting on a Modern Day Warsaw Pact (also found in ECN).

In addition, the five nations at the meeting -- Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan -- signed a declaration stating that "under no circumstances will they allow (the use of their) territories by third countries to launch aggression or other military action against any of the member states."

This is what I meant by a new Cold War situation but I called it a Luke Warm War. It is all part of the “King of the Mountain” world game that is currently going on.

I expect some serious maneuvering by at least the EU and China in the near future concerning the ME since that is where the game is the most intense.

King of the Mountain

An Article over at Spiegel Online is calling on America to do something but it isn’t what you might expect. It calls for President Bush to throw America’s weight around.

But unless Bush first gets publicly tougher on Russia as Iran's protector and international obstructionist, the mullahs may take America's insistence on skirting this reality as the surest sign they can get that they're home free.

John Vinocur isn’t a stranger to calling for the US to step up it just seems strange coming from someone employed NY Times.

It has been said by some circles that Putin and Russia feel betrayed by the US because we didn't help them out enough after the end of the cold war. It could also be that Putin/Russia has a driving desire to be important in the world.

At the end of the Cold War it left the world in a strange place. The US was left in a position of influence and power; the sole "super power". Of course that is a situation that can not exist for long. Since then there have been a couple of countries and organization that are taking aim at being an equal. The EU was constructed to be a direct counter part to the US, China has always been moving toward it and have made great strides.

What to world is seeing now is Russia trying to fill its' old shoes before anyone else gets there. The Middle East is the playground in the world game of King of the Mountain and Russia is using everything it can to get up to the top.